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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
1
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Posted - 2012.09.19 16:46:00 -
[1] - Quote
I have no problem with Hi-sec being risky. I would add, however, that I fail to see how bumping being a "neutral" act is anything other than an oversite and VERY close to the line of an exploit. I can dramatically affect someone' s game play without any ability for them to counter (in theory, they could war-dec and then shoot me but that takes 24 hours and is pretty easy for a one man corp to dodge... plus it costs me money to do it)...
So my only comment would be, eliminate bumping and/or make repeated bumping trigger a concord response (perhaps not a fatal concord response, however... maybe concord just webs you for 5 minutes??) |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
1
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Posted - 2012.09.19 17:13:00 -
[2] - Quote
Frostys Virpio wrote:Myxx wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote:PI Maker wrote:Myxx wrote:It is not a 100 percent assured kill. If you know what you're doing and are in your own corporation, there are methods of putting the freighter into warp before they are able to shoot it.
I put this together in like, a minute and I don't even fly freighters or rapiers.
[Rapier, Spiderman]
Overdrive Injector System II Inertia Stabilizers II Nanofiber Internal Structure II Nanofiber Internal Structure II
Stasis Webifier II Stasis Webifier II 10MN Microwarpdrive II Cap Recharger II Cap Recharger II Cap Recharger II
[Empty High slot] [Empty High slot] [Empty High slot] [Empty High slot]
[Empty Rig slot] [Empty Rig slot]
If you know how CONCORD and other game mechanics work... ganking isn't an issue. I get the impression that most of the people complaining aren't actually aware of how ganking and the game in general actually function.
It also helps if you're not AFK and afk warping around. If you're AFK, you get no points and have no ability to complain when you pop and could prevent it with due research and preperation. you do realize they can just shoot the slinger first, right? Why go through all the trouble killing the webber when you can mess with the alignement? There is no way to warp fast with a freighter unless he happens to be aligned. Freighter align slow. Slower than the time it takes another ship to ram him opposed to his target thus adding more and more time to the process. You must not understand very well how slinging a freighter into warp actually works. So, you start warp with the freighter, it, of course, must align. However, you go into warp at 75 percent of your total capable velocity. Webifiers modify this to be significantly lower than normal. This means the freighter will go into warp at a fraction of the overall speed it would typically require. After the warp has been initated, you apply the two webbers and if you did it correctly, it shouldn't take very long to sling the freighter into warp. Will it be properly aligned? Newp. But will it be at the gate being ganked? Newp. If your freighter gets bumped while aligning, it will not warp untill it can finish aligning. If you warp it often, you can completely hold him there indefinitely. Webbing him will only make him slower which has barely any incidence. Popping the webber also start the countdown for CONCORD response. The precious seconds wasted there are seconds you cannot use to apply dps on the freighter. So again, why waste time popping a webber when you can completely prevent the warp?
And we're back to the real problem of "bumping" = no risk. Requiring the freighter to incur the security hit and ship destruction involved with popping the bumper seems grotesquely unfair.
Can "no risk" bumping get replaced with SOMETHING that still allows hi-sec ganking without an obvious grief mechanic.
Put it this way, even if the freighters weren't ganked, seeing stabbers just preventing warps by constantly bumping doesn't make any sense.
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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
1
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Posted - 2012.09.19 17:34:00 -
[3] - Quote
Myxx wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote:Myxx wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote:PI Maker wrote:
blah, blah, interesting stuff about webbers
Let's be fair here... The webbers thing is clearly NOT a well documented game mechanic. There's some dispute here in this very thread over whether or not it will help the aligning (and therefore the bumping) issue. It requires a second account (or a friend). And, topping it all off, it still doesn't fully protect you (apparently).
Not to sound like a broken record, but how is the problem NOT unrestricted bumping?
Here's a suggestion. Hi-sec interdiction bubbles. They create aggro and are nearly instantly popped by concord after someone is caught.
So to gank a freighter, you'd have to have a scout on the gate, see him warp, then instruct your dictor to trigger. Then you have ~20 seconds (in 0.5) before concord responds and pops the dictor (thereby popping the bubble) and ~20 seconds after that before the freighter can warp.
So if you can DPS down a freighter in ~40 seconds, you can get your gank (which is doable, IIRC).
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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
1
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Posted - 2012.09.19 17:47:00 -
[4] - Quote
Frostys Virpio wrote:Seminole Sun wrote:
Let's be fair here... The webbers thing is clearly NOT a well documented game mechanic. There's some dispute here in this very thread over whether or not it will help the aligning (and therefore the bumping) issue. It requires a second account (or a friend). And, topping it all off, it still doesn't fully protect you (apparently).
Not to sound like a broken record, but how is the problem NOT unrestricted bumping?
Here's a suggestion. Hi-sec interdiction bubbles. They create aggro and are nearly instantly popped by concord after someone is caught.
So to gank a freighter, you'd have to have a scout on the gate, see him warp, then instruct your dictor to trigger. Then you have ~20 seconds (in 0.5) before concord responds and pops the dictor (thereby popping the bubble) and ~20 seconds after that before the freighter can warp.
So if you can DPS down a freighter in ~40 seconds, you can get your gank (which is doable, IIRC).
Or the freighter could follow the 2 basic rules a newbie was able to post here and be sure to enver be ganked for profit. This says nothing of ganking for tears but if money is no object, there is no defense beside not undocking. The rules are really easy.
I agree... if you're carrying 10 bil in implants and you don't have an escort, you probably should be shot down. But I also believe that there needs to be SOME way to prevent ganks (even full grief ganks). Maybe that's having a t3 boosting alt following me to screw the math up. Maybe that's a logi constantly repping me. The problem with the bumping is that there's no way to stop the bumping (and, as I've said, it's almost by definition a griefing mechanic). |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
1
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Posted - 2012.09.19 17:51:00 -
[5] - Quote
Gizznitt Malikite wrote:When you spawn in a system, your velocity is zero. Since your ship is a sphere, you have no alignment when sitting still. This means, when you accelerate to warp, you will automatically be aligned correctly. You only need to reach 75% of your maximum velocity to enter warp.
My ship is a sphere with no alignment sitting still? Are you trying to say that the game calculates my alignment based not on the ship's geometry but the direction of movement? That makes some sense (it certainly explains the alt+tab behavior of my ship spinning in space, mid-warp sometimes). Again, these are all very poorly documented mechanics and rather esoteric work arounds... Asking people to understand them is, I think, a tad silly. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
2
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Posted - 2012.09.19 20:29:00 -
[6] - Quote
Frostys Virpio wrote:Seminole Sun wrote: I agree... if you're carrying 10 bil in implants and you don't have an escort, you probably should be shot down. But I also believe that there needs to be SOME way to prevent ganks (even full grief ganks). Maybe that's having a t3 boosting alt following me to screw the math up. Maybe that's a logi constantly repping me. The problem with the bumping is that there's no way to stop the bumping (and, as I've said, it's almost by definition a griefing mechanic).
You can't prevent full grief gank. No matter how much tank you fit on a ship, if something can lock on it, it's over. It can be destroyed. You can bring hunderd of fast locking ship if you don't care about the cost. Only an instant warp would matter at that point and this would be a broken mecanic. You can prevent all ganks for profit. They're are many way. Full grief is impossible to prevent.
I may have misspoken. I agree that full grief ganks are just going to happen. My point was that I ought to be able to do SOMETHING to keep them from being a slam dunk (A T3 boosting alt probably is the BEST way to accomplish this... it throws their math off completely and it's far from obvious what I'm doing). |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
2
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Posted - 2012.09.20 02:19:00 -
[7] - Quote
Buck Futz wrote:What is a 'full grief' gank?
Hell, I ganked hundreds of Exhumers without expecting to make a profit at all. But I did it anyway, because the miner lost a lot more than I did, and they get so mad, and sometimes quit the game.
But full grief? Is that like when you have to use 5 Tornados to kill a single Mackinaw, so the miner loses 200 Million and the gankers lose half a Billion?
Sounds about as fun as dropping a bowling ball on your own foot.
Guess its still 'possible' - but gankers are a bit smarter than the average carebear and will simply find other targets.
I was using the term loosely to describe your example actually. A gank in which you are CERTAIN that you will lose more isk than you'll make by a fair margin (for some definition of fair). It's a mentality that I myself don't understand but it's one I recognize is out there.
There's very little that can be done to stop it (although I have limited pity for people that didn't AT LEAST fit a couple shield extenders on their exhumers to make it a bit less likely).
Personally, the only think about freighter ganking that has my hackles up is the riskless bumping. It's nearly 100% a grief mechanic and it needs to be removed (but replaced!!) so that there's still a plausible capacity for hi-sec ganking. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
2
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Posted - 2012.09.20 13:18:00 -
[8] - Quote
0wl wrote:A small corp with some Logi's could make a fortune escorting these lumbering behemoth's. Oh look at that a solution!
Logi's are of limited value if the alpha is high enough (although they can certainly throw the math off.
I also suggested further up that you have a T3 booster shadowing you. With the right gang links you should SIGNIFICANTLY throw off their math and it's not even something they could scan for, correct? If I understand the mechanics right, this could actually be a pretty good trap for the gankers (send in a freighter with enough stuff to make a profitable gank, have a T3 boosting alt or two with you)
Siege Warfare (boost shields), Armored Warfare (boosts armor), Skirmish Warfare (reduce Signature radius... this one may be irrelevant).
Throw on top of that a logi cruiser if you want and you have a really powerful setup designed to gank the gankers. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
3
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Posted - 2012.09.20 16:10:00 -
[9] - Quote
Tippia wrote:GǪnot to mention that pretty much every assumed value and time used to calculate those numbers is wrong.
I lack sufficient information to tell but are the numbers off by ALOT? What's the "breakeven" point for the calculation? Is a freighter full of Mexallon a definite Gank target (worth ~4.5billion). The ramifications for price stability are interesting (to me at least ;) |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
3
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Posted - 2012.09.20 17:19:00 -
[10] - Quote
Frostys Virpio wrote:baltec1 wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote:
Posted before. Stay under 2 bill and no wraps on your stuff and you will avoid most gank. It can still happen tho...
The quality of high sec pilots is rather telling given that 18 pages in and they still do not understand this very simple concept. The fact people still ask for it in this very thraed prove people can't read. I personally posted it at lest 3 time now ans some people pointed out it was pretty much right. Too lazy to read a thread, too lazy to not auto-pilot across a 0.5 I guess...
Someone posted math that then multiple people indicated was wrong. I was just curious what the right math is. I lack a sufficient knowledge base to do it myself and its an awful lot of stuff that's poorly documented. |
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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
3
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Posted - 2012.09.20 18:43:00 -
[11] - Quote
Samahiel Sotken wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote: Someone posted math that then multiple people indicated was wrong. I was just curious what the right math is. I lack a sufficient knowledge base to do it myself and its an awful lot of stuff that's poorly documented.
The math was largely correct, the numbers he was using are out of date. It boils down to anything less than 5 billion will probably be ignored unless the Pirate is bored, already made enough that day to cover his loses, or personally doesn't like you/your name/your corp/your bio.
Thank you... that answers my question. The way people responded I was concerned he was off by an order of magnitude or something. It still seems like a T3 booster shadowing the freighter would wreak some real havoc on their numbers. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
3
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Posted - 2012.09.20 19:03:00 -
[12] - Quote
Tom Gerard wrote:Kalchak wrote:1) Stop loading freights with insane value cargoes. 2) Stop jumping into systems with recent spates of ship kills. 3) CCP fix bumping.
Of all the issues here the only one that really qualifies for a complaint is the use of ships to bump the target out of alignment, essentially becoming a warp disruptor without actually having to lock a target. No risk to the pilot, yet you can basically stop a freighter in its tracks all day.
Maybe CCP need to look at allowing the mass of a vessel to dictate how much it can be nudged off course by smaller ships (if at all).
Apart from that, be more aware of your surroundings, don't load your life into a freighter.
Hell use an ORCA :P I hear they make good transport ships these days. Once again you think CCP could FIX something without nerfing something... let me tell you how it will go down bro. CCP will disable bumping for all ships. CCP will place a hard cap on ISK value in a cargo hold, RP it as some CONCORD sanction. CCP will prevent autopilot from jumping into systems with any pvp activity, so you'll have to sit at your PC from now on.
C'mon now... that's not even a good straw man attempt. The quote SPECIFICALLY said only #3 was a valid complaint (and I agree). It's clearly a zero risk item and would be (in ANY other game) considered an exploit / griefing. I think the ONLY reason it has remained is that it used to be (still is??) a critical component for Titan "tackling" because they couldn't be tackled by subcaps. The other two are obvious and no CCP action is necessary.
Frankly, the bumping issue also gets to a broader complaint of collision geometry being borked. Anyone's who's gotten inadvertently tangled in that reindeer antler looking collidable that shows up in missions sometimes knows what I'm talking about. I'd be all for just eliminated collisions altogether. I think they add very little to game play while being an endless source of frustration (my first rage-quit was a result of losing a hulk in null-sec because I was stuck for 5 minutes in a roid. The guy who killed me actually DIDN'T fire for a good minute while we chatted about how screwed the geometry was while my ship flapped around like a fish on dry land. Nicest gank I've ever been a part of ;) |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 19:41:00 -
[13] - Quote
baltec1 wrote:Malphilos wrote:Andski wrote:there's plenty of risk in suicide ganking, you just chalk it up to an "accepted cost" because you want to frame the argument your way The downside is completely limited. It is in fact a fixed cost and must be accepted or the process can't happen. One might argue that it turns the "don't fly what you can't afford to lose" rule on it's head as the loss is intended as a cost of business. You can't lose more than you intend or "accept", unless you're a complete flipping idiot and fail to understand the concept of "suicide". It's all potential upside. Risk mitigation at it's finest. You forgot the loot gods and they are a fickle bunch.
No... I think he's saying (feel free to correct me) is that the expense side of the ledger is fixed. I WILL lose every ship that fires on the freighter. So my cost is known. He's not alleging that it's a guaranteed return / profit. Merely that when you set out to do it, you KNOW you're going to lose x amount of isk. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 20:37:00 -
[14] - Quote
Okay... Some terms are getting thrown around and clearly there's some definitional disconnects
Cost = Expense and is NOT the same thing as Risk
Risk = uncertainty
Things with high Risk (i.e. uncertainty) typically demand a higher risk adjusted rate of return. A quick example is useful.
If I look at two investments. One has a 50/50 chance of gaining 60million isk or losing 40million isk. That's an Expected Value (EV) of $10million isk but with a fairly high risk associated with it.
Another investment has a 90/10 chance of gaining $12million isk or losing 8million isk (.9*12-8*.1 = 10) so they have the same Expected Value (EV) but very different risk profiles. In the real world, no one would buy the first investment if confronted with a choice. They'd dump all their money into the second one because the chance that ALL of their bets go bad is pretty slim while the chance that ALL of their best go bad if they do the first investment are actually pretty good and, in the long run, they'll make the exact same return so why take on the volatility.
Back to EVE
The GANKING aspect of freighter ganking (i.e. blowing the thing up) has no uncertainty (i.e. "risk") on the cost side. With 100% certainty you will lose X amount (whatever ships you have that shoot). Possibly if you bring a second bank of ships to cover for things like possible logi ships, boosters etc you might have a small amount of variation but it shouldn't be much.
What IS risky is the payoff. Absolutely. Both Malphilos and I concede that. But it doesn't change the equation on the cost side of things which is fixed with no "risk" associated with it.
I would GUESS, though I can't be certain, that gankers would look at a freighter full of $5Billion in Tech, Megacyte, Morphite and Zydrine as a MUCH better bet than one that has a single $5.5Billion isk implant (if they're PURELY looking for profit... if they want the kill mail, the single implant is a pretty awesome find). Because even though the implant technically has a higher EV, it also has a very good chance (50/50 right?) of yielding NOTHING for the effort. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 20:41:00 -
[15] - Quote
Taedrin wrote:Possible counters: 1) Kill the bumper 2) Scout before you enter a system 3) Log off before you get aggressed. IIRC, PVP does not extend your log off timer if you log off before getting aggressed. 4) Triple web your freighter with an alt so that it insta warps. 5) Fully insure your ship and don't haul cargo more valuable than the ships required to gank it. 6) Failing all of the above, contract out to a courier service who is more competent than you, such as Red Frog Freight.
1) Kill the bumper is a ridiculous counter... To stop from being ganked I have to sacrifice MY ship and security status to concord. All you're doing is pushing costs onto the wrong people
2) is fine although an imperfect solution 3) doesn't work... They're going to shoot you down in somewhere between 20-30 seconds. Logoff keeps you in space for what? 1 minute? I can't remember the timer but it's definitely more than 20-30 seconds 4) As I already discussed, this is (apparently) a very good solution. But man does it require a level of knowledge about undocumented game play elements that's bordering on the insane 5) Best solution (though doesn't prevent random grief ganking but that's okay by me) 6) Also a great solution
So you've got 2 decent semi-solutions (which honestly should stop 99% of the problem) and the red frog workaround (not so much a solution but a perfectly valid workaround). |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 20:45:00 -
[16] - Quote
Robert De'Arneth wrote:I really think the bottom line on this is this!! Anyone who can fly a billion + ISK ships is not new to the game, and they should know where the gank spots are, it is real easy to look, takes far less time then it does to buy a new ship with billions of freight.
agreed...
If you plexed your way to a freighter pilot and then lose it, I have no sympathy. If you were auto-piloting and you lose it, I have no sympathy. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 21:00:00 -
[17] - Quote
Taedrin wrote:1) But still a counter none-the-less. Some people might prefer to protect themselves in such a manner. You don't HAVE to kill the bumper.
I suppose... but if you're going to include Counters like that then, "Take a shuttle to Jita and engage in station trading without ever leaving" is also a valid "counter". The fact that we're even talking about "killing the bumper" is proof to me that there's something wrong with that particular mechanic.
[quote=Taedrin] 3) The OP isn't talking about alpha strike suicide ganks. He is talking about suicide ganks where the bumper keeps the freighter pinned down while a stream of suicide gankers are logged in/logged out. I would imagine that this takes longer than a minute. /quote]
I was confused by this as well and didn't understand it. The OP was a bit of flamebait / trolling so I was kind of leaving it behind. But why would you conduct a gank session that way? The only logical "phased" combat approach would be to have alpha fleet one fire it's two volleys that are calculated to kill an unboosted, un repped freighter. If that doesn't work, beta fleet fires it's two volleys to finish off the target. So MAYBE you're talking about a 40 second engagement with some bumping needed? |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 21:22:00 -
[18] - Quote
Samahiel Sotken wrote:Seminole Sun wrote:I was confused by this as well and didn't understand it. The OP was a bit of flamebait / trolling so I was kind of leaving it behind. But why would you conduct a gank session that way? The only logical "phased" combat approach would be to have alpha fleet one fire it's two volleys that are calculated to kill an unboosted, un repped freighter. If that doesn't work, beta fleet fires it's two volleys to finish off the target. So MAYBE you're talking about a 40 second engagement with some bumping needed? The only phased attacks I have ever seen are on either side of a gate when the first wave fails to kill the freighter by a small margin. Furthermore, though alpha is used occasionally among the rare suicide gank in high true sec systems, pirates drive by a profit motive almost always use DPS in a prestaged 0.5-0.6 system since the required number of ships is much lower. It's much like the lone gunman argument in security. Alpha like a determined lone gunman is nigh unpreventable. Fortunately lone gunmen and alpha suicides are rare. All legitimate strategy discussions revolve around high DPS.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding the mechanics of a concord response (having never been stupid enough to carry enough in my ship to create the opportunity). I was under the impression that about 20 seconds (in 0.5) after the initial volley, concord comes and insta-gibs you. It doesn't matter if you had one ship or 200 ships, they're all going to die ~20 seconds after they first aggress. Most battlecruisers will get off two volleys in that time right? Destroyers (which don't get used anymore for this purpose as I understand) get off three. While it may be playing semantics, I'd consider two shots in 10-12 seconds to be "essentially" an alpha strike. There's almost nothing that a freighter can do in that 10-12 seconds and very little shield regen is going to happen.
I guess my point is that they wouldn't be shooting at the freighter over a matter of minutes with a bumper CONSTANTLY bumping the freighter. They might need ONE bump and then 15-20 seconds of shooting.
If I'm misunderstanding something, let me know. As I said, this is a knowledge gap I'm trying to correct. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 21:39:00 -
[19] - Quote
Samahiel Sotken wrote:Seminole Sun wrote: Maybe I'm misunderstanding the mechanics of a concord response (having never been stupid enough to carry enough in my ship to create the opportunity). I was under the impression that about 20 seconds (in 0.5) after the initial volley, concord comes and insta-gibs you. It doesn't matter if you had one ship or 200 ships, they're all going to die ~20 seconds after they first aggress. Most battlecruisers will get off two volleys in that time right? Destroyers (which don't get used anymore for this purpose as I understand) get off three. While it may be playing semantics, I'd consider two shots in 10-12 seconds to be "essentially" an alpha strike. There's almost nothing that a freighter can do in that 10-12 seconds and very little shield regen is going to happen.
I guess my point is that they wouldn't be shooting at the freighter over a matter of minutes with a bumper CONSTANTLY bumping the freighter. They might need ONE bump and then 15-20 seconds of shooting.
If I'm misunderstanding something, let me know. As I said, this is a knowledge gap I'm trying to correct.
A Neutron Blaster Cannon II with all gunnery skills at IV gets off I think 3-4 volleys before concord shows up, at which point they neut and ECM you. You are smart and have fitted and overheated ECCM so you have a couple more volleys, meanwhile your Hobgoblin IIs are ignored and continue to fire away merrily. It's more complicated then that, also gate guns, but it gets the point across. Either way you need significantly less ships if you use high DPS high ROF blasters than if you use high alpha artillery.
Thanks... That's a much more nuanced result then my previous mental image of "magic NPC ships go up and you find yourself in a shiny new pod" ;)
NOW I understand the roll of bumping to keep the freighter locked down for closer to a minute. Interesting. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 22:01:00 -
[20] - Quote
Samahiel Sotken wrote:Seminole Sun wrote: Thanks... That's a much more nuanced result then my previous mental image of "magic NPC ships go up and you find yourself in a shiny new pod" ;)
NOW I understand the roll of bumping to keep the freighter locked down for closer to a minute. Interesting.
No problem, here to help. Also, since the profit margin is often so thin and the pirate is dependent on all the ships deliver as much DPS as possible it makes counter strategies like blackbirds or logis viable. Nothing ruins a pirates day than a freighter jumping out at 5% structure because some ******* good Samaritan. Except for maybe getting the wreck blown up before you can scoop it. Note to self: Open alt corp offering safe escort through Uedama.
Seems like a T3 booster shadowing the freighter would be a powerful counter as well. Or do most pirates bake that in for cushion?
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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 22:26:00 -
[21] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Seminole Sun wrote:Okay... Some terms are getting thrown around and clearly there's some definitional disconnects
Cost = Expense and is NOT the same thing as Risk
Risk = uncertainty Close, but not quite. Cost = cost. Risk = probability +ù cost.
I refer you here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk
I'm in the process of an ERM implementation. I can tell you that things that are 100% probability of occuring are NOT put in the risk bucket nor are they even included in most of our models. They are simply expensed (in most cases GAAP actually mandates this). Probability x cost is the Expected Value (EV). For most risk managers, Risk is defined as the range of reasonable variations of costs and/or rewards.
So flipping 100 coins and assigning heads = 1 and tails = -1. You'd have an EV of 0. You'd establish what your risk tolerance is (if it's a "bet the bank" type of risk, you're probably looking out two or even three standard deviations... if it's a simple investment decision, it's probably more like 1 or even 1/2 standard deviation). You price the deal to be ~ breakeven at that risk level recognizing that there's tail risk involved (for some definition of tail).
What has been referred to as "risk" for the gankers is, on the cost side, not anything that a risk manager would worry about. They're going to chalk up the entire fleet as a lost the moment they pull the trigger. The "risk" comes on the revenue side with what the EVE RNG gods decide to drop as loot.
More risk averse people would take a flyer on that hypothetical 5.5B implant over the 5billion in assorted minerals. Less risk averse people would not.
It's an interesting exercise and it's a type of mentality that tells you alot about null-sec vs. hi-sec dwellers. My gut is that most null-sec pirates would pull the trigger on the single implant. Most "carebear pirates" (if there is such a thing) would pass on it despite it having a higher EV they look at it as a (significantly) riskier proposition.
tl;dr I agree that ganking is "risky". I was quibbling with some people further back that were going very far afield and making confusing statements because of a poor understanding of the terminology. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 22:39:00 -
[22] - Quote
Touval Lysander wrote: Nothing like breaking down a plain old gank into demonstrations of numeracy and literary prowess is there?
It wouldn't be EVE if there wasn't a spreadsheet involved! I wonder if I should buy and sell Microsoft stock based on the daily logins of EVE users ;) |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 22:47:00 -
[23] - Quote
Tippia wrote:
blahblahblah, stuff in which we agree to disagree and both cite a wikipedia article that supports and hurts our respective positions
We're arguing over stupidly nuanced semantics. The broad point was that the cost is fairly well known in a gank and the revenue is where you can focus your attention (which I think we can both agree is where the largest uncertainty in the whole equation comes in).
I think if Concord had a 50/50 shot at killing you, you'd see ganking evolve to be more risky. Because now there IS uncertainty on the cost side. If everyone took the exact same ships that they used to take (in number and fitting) and they made the target threshold exactly the same as it used to, you're right, the risk (in the colloquial sense) would decline. But they wouldn't. They'd take fewer ships (though not half) and they'd fire at slightly less wealthy targets (again, not half). And I'm predicting (as much as you can predict something that will never happen) that their Risk Adjusted Rate of Return (i.e. their EV) would actually be HIGHER then it is now because of that increased uncertainty. |

Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians Darkmatter Initiative
4
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Posted - 2012.09.20 23:29:00 -
[24] - Quote
Tippia wrote:Seminole Sun wrote:blahblahblah, stuff in which we agree to disagree and both cite a wikipedia article that supports and hurts our respective positions Hey, you picked it, not me. It's not my problem if the first thing it says is what I'm sayingGǪ [/quote]
ehh... I was going to respond to this but this mini-threadnought has sufficiently sapped my will to live as well as sucking far too much time from my employer (maybe I need to put that on the client's risk register, "Risk that employees get sucked down the rabbit hole of internet forums" :)
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Seminole Sun
Hell's Librarians
5
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Posted - 2012.09.21 14:02:00 -
[25] - Quote
Frostys Virpio wrote:Andski wrote:Frostys Virpio wrote:Could it be done with lets say a Naga instead of a Talos for someone trained in caldari racial ship or is the talos used because it's THAT much better? The Talos has two more low slots and a hull bonus for hybrid damage to boot. Same dmg bonus on naga. I guess tracking bonus is better than optimal range for ganking and low slots beats meds too.
There's fewer caldari + hybrid pilots out there too... Where as all of us Gallente pilots have Hybrids trained |
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